Annual report finds higher price rises likely in regions slower to reopen after global travel shutdown
London, UK – December 2022. Air Monitor 2023, published by American Express Global Business Travel (Amex GBT), forecasts widespread air fare price rises around the world, due to a range of factors including inflation, rising fuel costs and capacity issues.
The report, created by Amex GBT’s Global Business Consulting team, is an annual forecast of air fare movements on key business travel routes. Air Monitor 2023 finds price changes likely to vary widely by region, with distinctions across the two hemispheres.
Europe-North America routes are expected to see modest rises of 3.7%, while intra-European flights could see stronger price rises (6% in the business cabin, 5.5% in economy) as airline capacity recovery lags behind the resurgence of demand. North American domestic fares are expected to see moderate rises (3.4% business, 2.9% economy) as more capacity comes online in 2023.
In Asia, price rises are forecast to be sharper, with economy flights to and from Europe up 12%, 7.6% in the business cabin. Asia-North America flights are also slated to see significant rises (5.6% business, 9.8% economy), while Australian domestic flights are forecast to rise 19.4% in the business cabin. Some countries in the Asia-Pacific region have been slower to reopen after COVID-19 travel restrictions, and an increase in demand combined with relatively strong economic prospects could put upwards pressure on prices.
Air Monitor 2023 identifies key trends driving price movements and shaping aviation in the year ahead. These include airline capacity, inflation, and the impact of foreign exchange rates and fuel surcharges. With business travel currently challenged by volatility and disruption, the report offers advice on managing effective air programs and prioritizing the traveler experience.
Julie Avenel, Vice President, Global Business Consulting at Amex GBT, said: “The volatile economic environment makes it challenging for travel teams to plan ahead. We want to equip our clients with the insights they need to build strong travel programs.
“As consultants we want to go beyond travel with our clients, and help them anticipate changes in our industry, so this report also looks at trends such as sustainability and the future of work, and asks how travel teams can respond.”
To generate the forecasts, the Amex GBT data science team used the Prophet algorithm for time series modelling that combined historical transaction data with International Air Transport Association (IATA) booking demand and capacity constraints, macroeconomic variables including per capita GDP, and key inputs such as the price of oil.