Business travel is coming back fast – but it’s looking very different to anything we’ve known before. Travel patterns are shifting. Prices are on the move. Organizations are getting to grips with new ways of working and the growing challenge of sustainability. And all of this is happening against a background of global economic uncertainty.
Helping clients prepare for the year ahead, our Global Business Consulting (GBC) team created Air Monitor 2023 to give them the insights they need to navigate today’s aviation landscape.
Alongside price forecasts on the world’s key business travel air routes, Air Monitor 2023 explores the factors that drive price movements and the trends that are reshaping our industry and roles as travel professionals.
Forecasting is always difficult. Forecasting air prices – after two years of disruption and volatility – is even more of a challenge, one that is compounded by the uncertain outlook for the world economy.
To generate Air Monitor 2023, our data science team used the Prophet algorithm, a model favored when there are strong seasonal effects and several seasons of historical data. It also factored in historical transaction data from our vast data lake, macroeconomic variables, including per capita gross domestic product, and key inputs, such as the price of oil.
The challenge of skewed data posed by the global travel disruption during 2020-2021 was solved by generating synthetic data for that period.
To find out more, download the Air Monitor now.
While the Air Monitor is informative, it can only tell you so much. To better understand how you’ll be flying next year and beyond, get in touch with the GBC air team to gain from their in-depth insights and knowledge.